In a forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that a heavy rainstorm is predicted to persist across Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema for the next five days as well as over interior Karnataka for the following two days.
Weather systems, rainfall/thunderstorm Forecast and Warnings by IMD:
Over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Goa on October 12, over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal from October 11 to 15, over Rayalaseema from October 11 to 13 and from October 15 over north interior Karnataka, south interior Karnataka, over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, over Kerala and Mahe, and over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Goa.
A Western Disturbance, which manifests as a trough in the mid- and upper troposphere’s westward winds, extends about along 70°E and north of 25°N. In the lower troposphere, a cyclonic circulation is present across Punjab and the neighbouring state of Haryana.
Lower tropospheric levels have a cyclonic circulation above Kerala, and these levels also have a trough that extends from this cyclonic circulation to southwest Madhya Pradesh.
During the north Andaman Sea, in the lower troposphere, there is a cyclonic circulation that will most likely migrate almost westward over the next 3–4 days.
Under the influence of the aforementioned systems, fairly widespread/widespread light/moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls and thunderstorm/lightning are very likely over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada on October 11; Konkan and Goa on October 12; Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on October 11–15; Rayalaseema on October 11–13 and 15; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on October 13 and 14;
On the 11th and 12th of October 2022, there is a good chance of widespread light to moderate rainfall with a few isolated heavy rains across Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and Bihar. On October 11, there may have been a few isolated, very strong downpours across Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
On October 11 and 12, 2022, there will likely be a fair amount of widespread light to moderate rain, along with a few isolated heavy downpours, thunderstorms, and lightning over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. On October 11, there is a high likelihood of isolated, extremely heavy rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, south Assam, and Meghalaya.
On October 11, there is a good chance of widespread light to moderate rain, with a few isolated heavy rains, thunderstorms, and lightning over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, East Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh.
As the nonstop rain for the previous two days disrupted daily life in the hills, the Met office issued a warning on Tuesday of heavy to very heavy rain in the districts of north Bengal and Sikkim.
Traffic in Darjeeling, Kalimpong, and the Himalayan state was disrupted by reported landslides on the Siliguri-Gangtok route and other locations.
Up to Wednesday, the agency has issued a red alert for Sikkim for torrential rain and an orange warning for Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar, and Darjeeling in north Bengal for extremely heavy rain.